Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 40.613037 44.372153 48.525086 53.493186 59.328747 66.035027 74.428593
2025-03-02 34.560754 39.364162 45.054411 52.427313 61.941004 74.130579 91.527478
2025-03-09 31.117659 36.371920 42.879029 51.772040 64.034375 81.089112 108.198393
2025-03-16 28.131395 33.451479 40.240471 49.869629 63.800420 84.423510 120.209498
2025-03-23 27.107888 32.854748 40.439467 51.668942 68.877349 96.430523 150.240145
2025-03-30 25.565919 31.395410 39.271927 51.296981 70.526204 103.244719 173.764998
2025-04-06 24.148172 29.970329 37.988796 50.546741 71.370800 108.763749 197.233754
2025-04-13 22.609603 28.262235 36.149049 48.720011 70.105670 110.039186 211.529515
2025-04-20 22.203255 28.100624 36.517873 50.360324 75.031154 124.633143 270.418638
2025-04-27 21.744283 27.821649 36.672497 51.646386 79.519657 139.771198 347.100512
2025-05-04 21.208061 27.388537 36.546560 52.428357 83.168099 154.298915 443.007589
2025-05-11 20.443307 26.569784 35.757010 51.968513 84.237136 162.796985 528.211744
2025-05-18 19.648606 25.696714 34.873732 51.349497 85.088207 171.723828 643.576637
2025-05-25 18.830553 24.751744 33.822713 50.341545 84.982548 178.136065 768.520396
2025-06-01 18.160397 23.997282 33.029441 49.727489 85.652546 187.344393 965.840378
2025-06-08 17.316656 22.937559 31.675613 47.942654 83.361319 186.112206 1055.164031
2025-06-15 17.182840 22.969423 32.124317 49.630826 89.583793 217.762293 1999.806001
2025-06-22 16.693987 22.419674 31.559698 49.282025 90.747693 231.461205 3067.654844
2025-06-29 16.177566 21.804266 30.848974 48.578208 90.889768 241.257605 4733.462256
2025-07-06 15.523176 20.945708 29.681193 46.862853 88.125614 236.970270 5416.695395
2025-07-13 15.441152 20.998352 30.088104 48.403264 94.416819 280.031653 65239.907123
2025-07-20 15.305148 20.955946 30.323435 49.609677 100.113759 327.674577 NaN
2025-07-27 15.103114 20.795826 30.338025 50.342657 104.630425 375.547008 NaN